This is a record high for November marketings since the survey began in 1996 and comes after a record low for cattle placed into feedlots in October. Marketings of fed cattle in November 2022 totaled 1.89 million head, 1% above the same time last year. Placements of cattle into feedlots in November were 1.93 million head, down 2% from the same time in 2021. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more were 11.7 million on Dec. The most recent Cattle on Feed (COF) report estimates that all cattle and calves on feed in U.S. 1 cattle inventory declined by 3% or more was in 1987. If the inventory comes in near 5% below 2021, the inventory would be the lowest since we approached 82.08 million in 1951. 1, 2021, the inventory of all cattle and calves in the Unites States would be the lowest since 2013. If the report estimates are 3.9% or more below Jan. Many industry experts are forecasting the inventory to be 4-5% below 2022, which was 2% less than the Jan. This inventory of cattle and calves in the United States will set the tone for 2023. This Market Intel is a deep dive into the 2023 cattle outlook, and what producers can do to position themselves for what lies ahead.Īll eyes will be on USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory report, set for release on Jan. From high feed costs to the third consecutive year of drought, there was no shortage of complex obstacles, many with effects that will carry through well beyond 2023. For example, 675 pound steers have an annual average price slide of 4.0 percent which varies from 8.2 percent in March to essentially zero in October.2022 was filled with mountains for U.S. Price slides in the middle feeder weights (575-725 pounds for steers, 550-700 pounds for heifers) have wide variation across months. In general, price slides are relatively constant across months for light weight calves and for the heavy feeders. Price adjustments can be fine-tuned using the monthly average price slides. It is also apparent that price slides for both steers and heifers vary across months. It is evident from Table 1 that the percent price slide for heifers is generally lower compared to steers for the lighter weights but is roughly equal to the steer price slide for heavy feeders. or $12.06/cwt if the market price was $180/cwt. Thus, the 575 pound steer would have a price slide of $8.04/cwt. However, while the percent price slide is constant, the absolute price adjustment depends on price level. In this example, the price slide is close to the traditional 10 cent slide. If the steer actually weighs 30 pounds more or 605 pounds, the price would be adjusted down by $3.02/cwt ($10.05 x 0.3 cwt.) to $146.98 ($150-$3.02). The annual average price slide is 6.7 percent which results in a price adjustment of $10.05/cwt. As an example of how to use these price slides, suppose the base price of 575 pound steers is $150/cwt. It is apparent that price slides are not only different for different weights but also vary for steers and heifers and at different times of the year. Table 1 shows annual average and monthly average price slides for selected weights of steers and heifers. Price slides depend on the price level and thus are more accurately stated as a percent of the base price. The price volatility of recent years has shown that these rules of thumb using absolute levels are inadequate to accurately capture price adjustments over a wide range of price levels. a 10 cent slide on calves or a 6 cent slide on yearlings. Prices slides are often stated in terms of traditional rules of thumb, e.g. Price slides are also useful for producers to evaluate price changes for the weight gain of calves in a preconditioning or short backgrounding program or perhaps the additional weight from creep feeding calves. Price slides have a number of uses, the most common of which is adjusting the price of forward contracted cattle if actual weight is different from the specified base weight. Price slides are a measure of the amount of price adjustment as weight changes from a base weight. Not only do prices vary across cattle weights but the size of the price adjustment depends on the weight of the cattle. Feeder cattle prices depend on the weight of the cattle with lightweight cattle typically having the highest price per pound (or hundredweight) and lower prices for heavier cattle.
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